Is Osaka City Really Short of Taxis?
Many Articles Say There’s a Taxi Shortage, But Is That Really True?
Osaka’s taxi market continues to spark much debate in 2024. Topics like driver shortages, declining occupancy rates, and changes in inbound demand are hotly discussed. Many have seen articles claiming this.
Investigating the Current State of Osaka’s Taxi Market Through Data
But what’s the actual situation? This article explains the current state of Osaka’s taxi market based on the latest data.
Key Data
2024 Inbound Visitors to Osaka Prefecture
14.63 million (19% increase from 2019, record high)
Osaka Prefecture Taxi Occupancy Rate (March 2024)
46.53% (Some views suggest there’s margin before the 55% shortage threshold)
Supply Situation: Drivers Are Increasing, But…
The number of drivers in the Osaka metropolitan transportation area is trending upward, but whether this increase directly translates to net service supply time requires attention, given the impact of the “2024 Problem.”
Taxi Driver Numbers Over Time
| Period | Driver Count |
|---|---|
| April 2023 (Est.) | 17,823 |
| January 2024 | 18,723 |
| 2025 Expo Period (Forecast) | 20,060 |
Impact of the “2024 Problem”
The driver working hour regulations enforced from April 2024 (revised standards) aim to ensure driver health and improve working conditions. However, with overtime caps (960 hours per year, etc.), individual driver working hours may decrease, potentially affecting total supply time.
Exploding Demand: Supply Can’t Keep Up
Rapid Increase in Inbound Tourists (Osaka Prefecture)
The V-shaped recovery of tourism demand post-COVID is remarkable, with 2024 inbound visitor numbers hitting record highs.
| Year | Visitors |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 12.31 million |
| 2023 | 9.94 million |
| 2024 (Est.) | 14.63 million |
Preparing for Expo 2025 Osaka-Kansai
The taxi industry faces major challenges to meet the massive transportation demand during the Expo.
- Approx. 4,000 people: Additional drivers needed during Expo (estimate)
- Approx. 2,300 vehicles/day: Additional taxis needed during Expo (estimate)
The True Nature of “Shortage”: Accessibility Barriers
While occupancy rate statistics suggest margin, passengers continue to complain that “taxis are hard to find.” This is thought to be caused by “supply-demand mismatch” where demand concentrates at specific times and places that supply can’t meet.
Example of Taxi Waiting Situation at Major Terminal (Senri-Chuo Station, October 2024)
| Time Period | Avg. Waiting Taxis | Situation |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00 - 02:00 | 15 vehicles | Relatively abundant |
| 10:00 - 12:00 | 0 vehicles | Vehicle shortage occurs |
Summary
Osaka’s taxi market isn’t simply “short”—the main challenge is temporal and spatial mismatch between supply and demand. Measures for the Expo and building more efficient dispatch systems are needed.